DNK International By Alex Otunga,Nairobi
The death of ODM party leader Raila Amolo Ohdinga in October last year in India left the party in confusion and without clear succession structures.
This situation is hurting the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which has been one of the largest and most influential political parties in Kenya since the introduction of multiparty democracy.
As the 2027 General Election approaches, Luo Nyanza politics is taking a new and unpredictable direction that is likely to leave many political casualties as competition for influence intensifies.
President William Ruto has been keen on making political inroads in Luo Nyanza, a region where he received minimal support in the last general election.
However, he now appears to be looking at the region as a crucial voting bloc for his 2027 re-election bid.
The president is particularly targeting the support base that previously backed the late former Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga.
Ruto is relying on the cooperation that was initiated between ODM and UDA, which later resulted in what is now known as the “broad-based government.”
The president appears to have three key strategies for dealing with Luo Nyanza politics.
First, by influencing ODM through Oburu Oginga. Second, by promoting former Cabinet Secretary and former Deputy Head of Public Service Eliud Owalo as a state backed political project.
Third, by relying on Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo as a key government operative in the region. These strategies are largely seen as efforts to weaken ODM, endear the president to the Luo Nyanza electorate, and create divisions among regional leaders.
President Ruto’s approach includes leveraging Oburu Oginga, who currently leads ODM, to build a possible coalition ahead of the 2027 elections.
Dr. Oginga has publicly indicated that ODM could support President Ruto’s re-election bid as an equal partner, a position that has met resistance from some ODM leaders allied to Edwin Sifuna.
Those opposed to the move argue that ODM’s cooperation with the government was meant to advance the 10-point agenda agreed upon between the late Raila Amolo Odinga and President William Ruto, rather than to support the president’s re-election bid.
It remains to be seen how Dr. Oginga will navigate these murky waters, even as he appears to receive support from leaders such as Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Suna East MP Junet Mohamed.
Leaders allied to Dr. Oginga are said to be receiving strong backing as they promote the government’s agenda on the ground while toning down opposition politics.
Among the key figures mentioned in this camp are Jaoko Oburu, Gladys Wanga, Junet Mohamed, Alego-Usonga MP Samuel Atandi, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi and Migori Governor Ochillo Ayacko among others.
The ODM leader has expressed support for President Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid but with conditions, including the possibility of ODM securing the Deputy President position.
However, critics argue that the president has already settled on his preferred running mate in Kithure Kindiki, raising fears among ODM members that the party may end up with little political gain.
On the other hand, one of the president’s perceived political projects, Eliud Owalo, is viewed by critics as struggling to gain traction.
His political style, which is often described as strategic but low key, is said to be ineffective in Luo Nyanza politics where mass mobilization and large public rallies traditionally play a significant role.
Another key figure in the president’s strategy is Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo, who is widely believed to be the government’s main political mobilizer in Luo Nyanza.
It is also alleged that he played a key role in brokering the cooperation agreement between the late Raila Amolo Odinga and President William Ruto that led to the formation of the broad-based government.
Critics accuse Omollo of using administrative structures and security arrangements to frustrate leaders opposed to the president in the region, including claims that security details attached to Siaya Governor James Orengo were withdrawn.
The mobilization of government supporters during presidential tours in Luo Nyanza is also viewed by some as part of the strategy to consolidate support for the government in the region.
However, a section of leaders within and outside ODM has strongly opposed any attempt to align Luo Nyanza politically with President Ruto.
They argue that the president’s interest in the region is purely strategic and aimed at securing a second term.
This camp is led by Siaya Governor James Orengo, who is widely expected to seek a second term.
Other leaders in this faction include Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Winnie Odinga, Ruth Odinga, Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo, Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang and Migori Senator Eddy Oketch.
These leaders believe that the ideals championed by “Baba,” as Raila Amolo Odinga was popularly known, would be undermined if ODM formally aligns itself with President Ruto.
Another influential figure shaping Luo politics is Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, the suspended ODM Secretary-General who has challenged his suspension in court.
Sifuna has launched a political movement known as “Linda Mwananchi,” which aims to counter the influence of the Oburu-aligned camp.
The movement has reportedly gained traction in parts of Luo Nyanza.
According to political insiders, State House quickly developed a strategy to manage ODM after the death of Raila Amolo Odinga by working with leaders considered politically cooperative.
Sifuna’s camp reportedly includes Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, Kakamega Woman Representative Elsie Muhanda, Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi and Taita Taveta Senator Johnes Mwashushe among others.
The big question now remains whether Oburu Oginga, with the backing of President William Ruto, can steer ODM back to its former political strength amid competing interests and growing divisions.
Only time will tell.
[DNK-International@March 8,2026]
