DNK International By Xavier Lugaga,SCOOP NEWS AGENCY.
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is staring at what political analysts describe as one of the most delicate moments in its recent history, amid growing speculation over a possible coalition pact with United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Pundits now warn that if the current political dynamics persist, ODM could find itself pushed back into the opposition,a scenario that party strategists are keen to avoid but one that appears increasingly plausible.
At the heart of the debate is the much touted possibility of a coalition arrangement between ODM and UDA ahead of the next general election.
However, insiders and independent political observers caution that the path to such a partnership is riddled with high-stakes negotiations, regional arithmetic, and internal party rivalries.
Deputy Presidency as the Deal-Breaker
Sources familiar with preliminary talks indicate that any coalition would hinge on ODM securing the Deputy Presidency.
Yet analysts argue that even if such an agreement were struck, it may not guarantee electoral victory.
“The mountain vote is decisive,” said one political commentator referring to the Mt. Kenya voting bloc.
“If the region feels sidelined, the coalition risks hemorrhaging support. Politics is about perception and numbers.”
Interviews conducted by Scoop News Agency among voters across several counties revealed deep skepticism about the viability of the arrangement.
“It is a tough balancing act for ODM,” said a voter in Kisumu. “If they compromise too much, they lose identity. If they refuse, they risk isolation.
It almost looks suicidal.”
A Deputy President Unlikely to Surrender
Complicating matters further is the political reality surrounding the sitting Deputy President.
Observers argue that the current occupant of the office is unlikely to surrender ground without a fierce contest, should coalition negotiations alter the power equation within UDA.
“The Deputy Presidency is not a ceremonial position,” noted a Nairobi-based analyst. “It carries political weight and succession implications. No serious politician gives that up easily.”
Internal Jostling Within ODM
Inside ODM, the possibility of securing the Deputy Presidency has reportedly ignited quiet but intense competition.
Party insiders point to several high-profile figures believed to harbor ambitions for the slot, including Hassan Joho, Gladys Wanga, and Wycliffe Oparanya, among others.
“The whispers are growing louder,” said a source within the party. “Everyone wants it. And if the coalition materializes, the battle may shift from external rivals to internal competition.”
Political observers warn that such infighting could weaken ODM’s bargaining power at the negotiation table and project disunity at a critical time.
The Sifuna–Babu Factor
Another emerging dimension is the perceived ideological and strategic divide within the party.
Analysts suggest that a faction associated with Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino could command significant grassroots support, particularly among urban and youth voters.
“If that wing feels alienated or sidelined in coalition talks, ODM risks losing substantial numbers,” said a university lecturer who studies electoral behavior.
“And without cohesive numbers, the party becomes less attractive to UDA.”
A Defining Moment
As negotiations — formal or informal — continue behind closed doors, ODM’s leadership faces a defining strategic choice: preserve party cohesion and risk remaining in opposition, or gamble on a coalition whose internal and regional consequences remain unpredictable.
For now, the party stands at a political crossroads.
Whether it emerges strengthened or fractured may depend not only on boardroom agreements but also on its ability to maintain unity amid ambition.
The coming months could determine whether ODM consolidates power within a new political realignment — or watches from the opposition benches once again.
[DNK-International@February 16,2026]
